Demand for automobiles decreases, real prices continue to decline

The ratio of the number of sold cars to the number of ads for sale, which is monitored as an indicator of vitality in the automobile market, stands out as 21.7 percent, increasing by 0.4 points compared to last month. It seems that this increase occurred as a result of the decrease in both the number of advertisements and the number of cars sold. In addition, it shows how long advertisements of cars for sale remain on the air, which is used as another measure of liveliness in the automobile market. closed ad age 0.3 days longer compared to last month 20.2 days happened.

Real sales prices continue to fall

Adjusted for inflation, the average real price of automobiles has been declining for 18 months (Figure 1 – upper panel). The real price index decreased by 0.1 percent compared to November and reached 154.8. The annual change in real prices still appears negative (Figure 1 – lower panel). The rate of change, which reached 47.9 percent in May 2023, decreased continuously in the following months and fell to -41.4 percent in June 2024. After this date, the annual rate of decline in real prices started to decrease and reached -26.9 percent in December.

Figure 1: Average automobile real price (January 2020=100) (Upper panel), annual change of average automobile real price (%) (Lower panel)

Source: sahibinden.com, Betam

The moderate increase in the average car price continues

We see that average car prices increased slightly compared to the previous month (Figure 2). The average car price, which was 899 thousand 940 TL in November, became 908 thousand 588 TL in December (Figure 2 – top panel). The average car price increased by 5.6 percent compared to the previous year (Figure 2 – bottom panel).

Figure 2: Average automobile price (TL) (Upper panel), annual change of average price (%) (Lower panel)

Source: sahibinden.com, Betam

Decrease in automobile demand

While a significant increase was observed in the demand indicator in July, due to both the return of the holiday and the campaigns launched by automobile companies on the new regulations of the European Union, it is noteworthy that after this date, except for September, the demand indicator has an increasing trend. However, we see that automobile demand decreased slightly in November. This decrease in automobile demand continues in December. Automobile demand index decreased by 1.7 percent compared to the previous month and reached 109.4. On the other hand, the automobile demand index is 17.5 percent higher compared to the same month last year. (Figure 3)

Figure 3: Demand indicator (January 2020=100)

Source: sahibinden.com, Betam

Both the automobile supply and the number of cars sold decreased

The ratio showing how much of the for sale advertisements were sold is calculated by dividing the number of cars sold by the number of advertisements for sale. (Figure 4 Upper panel) This ratio rises as a result of the increase in the number of listings faster than the number of cars sold, indicating that the market is recovering. However, even if the decrease in the number of advertisements occurs more slowly than the decrease in the number of car sales, the rate increases. This indicates that the vitality in the market is decreasing.

In December, the number of car advertisements for sale decreased by 2.5 percent compared to the previous month, while a 0.8 percent decrease was observed in the number of cars sold. As a result of this change, the rate in question increased by 0.4 percentage points to 21.7 percent. (Figure 4)

Figure 4: Ratio of the number of cars sold to the number of car advertisements for sale (%) (Upper panel), number of cars sold and for sale (Bottom panel)

Source: sahibinden.com, Betam

The age of closed advertisements for cars for sale has been extended

Another indicator of the vitality of the automobile market, closed ad age unlike the previous four months, it was extended. In December 2024, it was 20.2 days, extending by 0.3 days compared to the previous month.